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You’ve got three possible outcomes. One: O caves relatively quickly and agrees to defund. That’s not going to happen, not only as a matter of pride in his signature legislation but as a matter of necessity. He needs the health-insurance exchanges to begin on time. Public dependency on federal subsidies is key to the law’s long-term prognosis. Agreeing to delay the whole project gives Republicans their only real chance of killing the law before it’s implemented. He’d rather have the lights go off than do that. Two: The GOP comes around to Cruz’s and Paul’s position, leaving O and Republicans deadlocked. The government shuts down and the public waits to see who’ll blink first. The media lights up with White House talking points about Republicans risking damage to the economy in order to deny health-care coverage to the middle class, yadda yadda — you know how it goes. Obama, being a lame-duck whose eye is on his legacy, has little incentive to blink. Aspiring GOP presidential candidates do. Eventually some face-saving compromise is reached to end the shutdown, possibly a delay of some O-Care provisions that aren’t related to the exchanges, but the law is funded and, if you believe the Winston poll, Republicans are probably damaged. Three: The “defund ObamaCare†effort fails to draw 41 Republican votes for a filibuster. Cruz and Paul cite it as ultimate proof of RINOism run rampant in Washington. Paul, for one, likely also mentions that certain Republican governors with their eye on 2016 actually enabled ObamaCare by accepting the law’s Medicaid expansion while he and tea partiers were busy trying to kill the damned thing. In the next round of presidential polls, he and Cruz both see their numbers rise.
